Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe333…fc35 crypto 270 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$61 (+2%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%265W / 4L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$54
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$49
finance 3% +$2
other 1% +$1
sports 1% +$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 268 +1.4% -8.2% 99% 1% -8.2%
≤30d 269 +1.4% -8.2% 99% 1% -8.2%
≤90d 269 +1.4% -8.2% 99% 1% -8.2%
all 269 +1.4% -8.2% 99% 1% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 1% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 0% -17.0%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.0%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$13 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses265 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)269 / 270
History coverage9d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 99¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$2 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $14 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 92¢ $15 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 20h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $20 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.55 · official $29.25 (match) · 550 history records