Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe336…45d6 crypto 222 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$97 (+0%) realized +$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%211W / 11L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$70
14 days−$38
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -1.0% -10.4% 86% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 136 +0.3% -9.3% 93% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 222 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.3%
all 222 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses211 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)222 / 222
History coverage58d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 222 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Jun 19 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $99 −$13 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $396 +$4 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET Jun 19 $398 −$64 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET Jun 19 $396 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 19 $99 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $93 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $99 −$14 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Jun 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $97 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $396 +$4 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $97 −$11 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $393 +$7 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $99 −$19 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $399 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $98 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $399 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $173 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $399 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $398 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $100 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $86 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $400 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $299 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $97 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $334 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $268 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $104 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $400 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $396 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $100 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $94 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $94 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $93 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $85 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $62 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $100 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $58 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 535 history records