Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E3
0xe338…64ad
other · 71 markets active 15h ago
5.0score
+$4,724 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,100 · open +$148
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,417
Realized+$4,100
Unrealized+$148
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses29 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions20
Markets (closed)51 / 71
History coverage127d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 20 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3,697
14 days+$3,967
30 days+$3,983
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $1,052 $1,105 +$53 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 84¢ $483 $507 +$24 (+5%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 78¢ 96¢ $351 $429 +$78 (+22%)
Will Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027? No 82¢ 86¢ $318 $335 +$17 (+5%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 86¢ 92¢ $200 $214 +$15 (+7%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 17¢ 18¢ $170 $175 +$5 (+3%)
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 37¢ $180 $148 −$32 (-18%)
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes 40¢ 55¢ $99 $135 +$36 (+36%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 94¢ 95¢ $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
LA Mayoral Election: Court Rules 1st Round Fraudulent? No 89¢ 94¢ $62 $65 +$3 (+5%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 33¢ 55¢ $33 $54 +$21 (+65%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? No 47¢ 48¢ $31 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+15%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 41¢ 83¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+103%)
James Comey charges dropped by July 31? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $43 $13 −$30 (-71%)
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-48%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $55 $5 −$50 (-91%)
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 83¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 19? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 14? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 15? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 21? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Don Lemon charges dropped? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $522 +$42 +8%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$17 +57%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $23 +$47 +199%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $2,059 +$2,848 +138%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,034 +$284 +28%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $296 +$104 +35%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $613 +$542 +88%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 11? Jun 09 $20 −$13 -64%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 28? Jun 09 $19 −$19 -97%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 26? Jun 09 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 21? Jun 09 $13 −$12 -97%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 30? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 29? Jun 09 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 27? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 25? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -96%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 24? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 23? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 22? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 19? Jun 09 $13 −$12 -97%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 15? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 14? Jun 09 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 13? Jun 09 $49 −$48 -97%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 12? Jun 09 $26 −$25 -97%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $575 +$34 +6%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $47 +$13 +28%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 05 $1,516 +$54 +4%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 04 $31 +$10 +33%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 25 and May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $920 +$53 +6%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $115 +$6 +5%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,028 +$147 +7%
Claude 4.8 released by July 31? May 28 $76 +$5 +6%
Claude 4.8 released by June 30? May 28 $19 +$1 +6%
Claude 4.8 released by June 15? May 28 $92 +$8 +8%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $2,162 −$125 -6%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 18 and May 24, 2026? May 25 $551 +$25 +5%
GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026? May 25 $280 +$7 +3%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 23 $34 −$32 -96%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 22 $541 +$27 +5%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 19 $370 +$30 +8%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 14 $375 +$70 +19%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 13 $856 +$7 +1%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 02 $9 +$1 +9%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $4 −$4 -100%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 17 $126 +$40 +32%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Mar 30 $400 +$3 +1%
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? Mar 22 $296 +$104 +35%
Will Trump say "The State of the Union is strong" during the 2026 Stat Mar 22 $164 −$164 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $48 +$152 +317%
Don Lemon charges dropped? Feb 22 $24 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 48% +$622
other 46% +$3,499
politics 4% −$71
world 2% +$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 15h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $19 15h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $32 15h
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 83¢ $4 40h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $60 44h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 44h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $49 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $94 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $72 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $25 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $84 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $94 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $94 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $51 2d
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 40¢ $101 2d
Will Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $320 2d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $294 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $82 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $116 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $12 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $16 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $533 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $296 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $720 3d
LA Mayoral Election: Court Rules 1st Round Fraudulent? BUY No 89¢ $63 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $79 3d
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -39.1% -44.9% 36% 28% +52.0%
≤30d 40 -24.1% -31.3% 55% 22% +15.2%
≤90d 48 -24.7% -31.9% 56% 23% +12.4%
all 51 -18.8% -26.5% 57% 25% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 25% +13.0%
10% -33.6% 22% +2.2%
15% -40.0% 10% -7.7%
20% -45.9% 10% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,417.14 · official $3,417.14 (match) · 484 history records