Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:24:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe33b…24d5 other 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 403d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$5
politics 35% −$3
sports 9% −$1
economics 6% −$1
culture 4% −$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -0.8% -10.2% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 80 -5.3% -14.3% 5% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 1% -9.7%
10% -22.5% 1% -18.3%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

403d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 76
Open positions5
Markets (closed)80 / 85
History coverage403d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 19 $64 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $268 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2 $0 -6%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $66 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $65 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $67 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 01 $67 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $68 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $202 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $69 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $68 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 11 $137 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 10 $67 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 07 $134 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 05 $136 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 27 $69 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $1 $0 -17%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 22 $70 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 17 $69 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 08 $67 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 05 $67 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 03 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $69 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 20 $68 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 15 $2 $0 -18%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 12 $69 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 04 $69 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 02 $71 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 20 $71 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 15 $1 $0 -50%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $70 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 11 $2 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Oct 04 $216 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $72 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 30 $72 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $72 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $143 $0 -0%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 24 $71 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $1 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 1h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $64 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 6d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $64 10d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $64 13d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $64 14d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 16d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 19d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $66 19d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 21d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 23d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 24d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.92 · official $65.92 (match) · 441 history records