Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

E3 0xe33d…c1fe sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$88 (+5%) realized −$75 · open +$163

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR31%break-even

Win rate31%5W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$79per market

Trades / day26.8pace

Fees−$28est.

Kalshi-fit86%portable

Net worth$456now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +31%

net ROI/market (all)-19.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	-10.8%	-19.3%	31%	31%	-5.1%
≤30d	16	-10.8%	-19.3%	31%	31%	-5.1%
≤90d	16	-10.8%	-19.3%	31%	31%	-5.1%
all	16	-10.8%	-19.3%	31%	31%	-5.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover26.8 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-19.3%	31%	-5.1%
10% ← realistic here	-27.0%	31%	-14.2%
15%	-34.0%	31%	-22.5%
20%	-40.5%	31%	-30.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 66% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -39% → late +18% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$190 vs −$80 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.08 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$456

Realized−$75

Unrealized+$163

Win rate (resolved)31%

Wins / losses5 / 11

Est. fees paid−$28

Open positions6

Markets (closed)16 / 22

History coverage1d

Avg bet$79

Trades / day26.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Over	40¢	68¢	$50	$86	+$36 (+71%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	43¢	74¢	$50	$85	+$35 (+71%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5	Over	48¢	82¢	$48	$83	+$35 (+72%)
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5	Over	42¢	66¢	$49	$77	+$29 (+58%)
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	45¢	69¢	$50	$77	+$27 (+54%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	Yes	58¢	60¢	$46	$47	+$1 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$101	+$84	+82%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$149	+$128	+86%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5	Jun 26	$102	−$100	-98%
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$96	+$452	+473%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 26	$102	−$102	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$102	−$102	-100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$105	−$105	-100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	Jun 26	$97	−$97	-100%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$102	−$100	-98%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$80	−$78	-98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score	Jun 26	$102	+$176	+172%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$97	+$110	+114%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$49	−$48	-98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5	Jun 25	$51	−$50	-98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5	Jun 25	$49	−$48	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$51	−$50	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5	BUY Over	42¢	$50	1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$49	1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	58¢	$46	1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	43¢	$51	1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	40¢	$51	1h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	45¢	$51	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	100¢	$185	15h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$277	15h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	29¢	$102	16h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5	BUY Over	53¢	$149	16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	54¢	$101	16h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$548	16h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Over	17¢	$96	18h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5	BUY Over	28¢	$102	18h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	20¢	$80	18h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$277	18h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5	BUY Over	9¢	$105	19h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	34¢	$102	19h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$207	19h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	32¢	$97	20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	28¢	$102	20h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	46¢	$97	20h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	36¢	$102	21h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	46¢	$49	24h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	35¢	$51	24h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	45¢	$49	25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	61¢	$51	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $455.51 · official $451.08 (match) · 31 history records