Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:00:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E3 0xe33e…2bac sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$479 (+32%) realized +$606 · open −$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$399
other 45% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +19.6% +8.2% 58% 58% +27.2%
≤30d 19 +19.6% +8.2% 58% 58% +27.2%
≤90d 19 +19.6% +8.2% 58% 58% +27.2%
all 19 +19.6% +8.2% 58% 58% +27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 58% +27.2%
10% -2.1% 58% +15.0%
15% -11.6% 58% +3.9%
20% -20.2% 47% -6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$27 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.02 per $1 lost it wins $3.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized+$606
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage3d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 56¢ $300 $231 −$69 (-23%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 46¢ 19¢ $100 $41 −$59 (-59%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $61 −$61 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $204 +$87 +43%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $51 −$33 -65%
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $102 +$84 +82%
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $51 +$31 +61%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $31 +$77 +248%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$13 +126%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $103 +$130 +126%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $123 −$98 -80%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $21 +$27 +129%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $174 +$115 +66%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $102 +$79 +78%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$4 +39%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $15 +$13 +84%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $10 −$7 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 46¢ $103 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $306 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $61 4h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL Canada 100¢ $291 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 16¢ $18 25h
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $187 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 68¢ $204 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 26h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 42h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 98¢ $108 42h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 42h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 43h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 13¢ $24 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $103 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $102 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $289 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $153 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 18¢ $4 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 48¢ $10 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.95 · official $274.95 (match) · 44 history records