Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:01:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe33f…a059 other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$120 (+9%) realized +$92 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 32L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$168
7 days+$1
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$76
sports 44% +$171
crypto 4% −$32
politics 1% −$10
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -31.2% -37.7% 28% 28% -9.5%
≤30d 46 -22.1% -29.5% 30% 30% -7.5%
≤90d 46 -22.1% -29.5% 30% 30% -7.5%
all 46 -22.1% -29.5% 30% 30% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 30% -7.5%
10% -36.3% 26% -16.4%
15% -42.4% 24% -24.5%
20% -48.1% 24% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$11 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions8
Markets (closed)46 / 61
History coverage10d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+20%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $5 $21 +$16 (+316%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? No 4¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 -8%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 28 $101 −$101 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $36 −$25 -70%
Panama vs. England: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $10 +$14 +141%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $5 +$12 +237%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $71 +$52 +73%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$11 +109%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $20 +$30 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 +$15 +145%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $111 +$20 +18%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -5%
France to win the second half? Jun 23 $101 +$27 +27%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 −$1 -3%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 +$16 +158%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $10 −$8 -79%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 $0 -3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 +$53 +52%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 +$15 +145%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -46%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $8 +$25 +317%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half BUY 33¢ $30 2h
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND DR Cong BUY 11¢ $5 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY No 4¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Colombia vs. BUY 19¢ $5 4h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $10 4h
Panama vs. England: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY 12¢ $10 6h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 24h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 25h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Cabo Verde to score first vs. BUY 22¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.72 · official $233.84 · 125 history records