Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe33f…e413 sports 753 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,394 (+1%) realized +$1,394 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%288W / 465L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Fees−$785est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$509
7 days−$602
14 days−$351
30 days−$832
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$1,130
other 9% −$516
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -13.8% -22.0% 39% 39% -15.3%
≤30d 63 -1.6% -10.9% 35% 35% -14.7%
≤90d 394 -6.8% -15.7% 33% 32% -12.9%
all 753 -2.3% -11.6% 38% 38% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 38% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 38% -17.8%
15% -27.8% 38% -25.7%
20% -34.9% 37% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$235 vs −$144 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,394
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses288 / 465
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$785
Open positions0
Markets (closed)753 / 753
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$164
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 753 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $629 +$273 +43%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $581 −$576 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $501 +$499 +99%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $153 +$347 +226%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $148 −$145 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $597 +$403 +67%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 19 $87 −$85 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $113 −$110 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $245 −$240 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $367 −$361 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $598 +$302 +51%
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $209 +$491 +236%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $127 −$124 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $775 −$770 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $687 +$313 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $147 +$53 +36%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $677 +$323 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$69 +226%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $38 +$62 +165%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $86 −$85 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $216 −$214 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $343 −$337 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $296 −$290 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $148 +$352 +238%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $199 −$195 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $617 +$383 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $289 −$285 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $106 +$294 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $62 +$438 +712%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $348 −$340 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $161 −$158 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $98 −$96 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $209 −$205 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $113 −$110 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 10 $148 −$145 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 09 $151 +$349 +231%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $234 +$266 +114%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $239 −$239 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $254 +$246 +97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $244 −$244 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $214 −$214 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 04 $176 +$824 +468%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $209 +$291 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $79 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $52 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $66 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $16 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $58 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $19 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $49 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $54 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $57 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $76 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $199 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3479 history records