Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:25:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E3 0xe341…354d sports 87 markets active 14h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,991 (-23%) realized −$2,991 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%39W / 48L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$629
14 days−$4,207
30 days−$4,207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$2,269
other 6% −$767
crypto 1% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 57 -51.8% -56.4% 23% 23% -52.6%
≤90d 57 -51.8% -56.4% 23% 23% -52.6%
all 87 -19.5% -27.2% 45% 43% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 43% -32.2%
10% -34.1% 39% -38.7%
15% -40.5% 32% -44.6%
20% -46.3% 25% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$119 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,991
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses39 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage153d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $624 −$616 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $800 −$318 -40%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $207 −$202 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,324 −$50 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,037 +$362 +35%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $496 +$359 +72%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $12 −$12 -97%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $366 +$178 +49%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $153 +$223 +146%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $576 −$566 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$80 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $50 +$14 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $151 +$37 +24%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $146 −$144 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $14 +$9 +62%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $134 −$133 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $117 −$18 -15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $28 +$7 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 +$65 +128%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 +$19 +91%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$12 +60%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $22 +$11 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 17? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 21? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: DN Freecs vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Jun 13 $45 −$24 -54%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: DN Freecs vs DRX - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $45 −$26 -58%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $79 −$79 -100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $100 −$99 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 56¢ $624 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 27¢ $145 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 68¢ $337 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $498 7d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $207 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 31¢ $51 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 69¢ $321 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $302 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $892 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $47 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $302 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $507 8d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $855 8d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 58¢ $7 9d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 58¢ $185 9d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 58¢ $3 9d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 58¢ $248 9d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 58¢ $28 9d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 58¢ $26 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 54¢ $496 9d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 10¢ $12 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 54¢ $11 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $531 9d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 73¢ $530 9d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $546 10d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $544 10d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 67¢ $192 10d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 67¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 224 history records