Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:25:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E3 0xe346…9040 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$1,193 (+23%) realized +$1,214 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,721now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$515
7 days+$583
14 days+$2,014
30 days+$1,214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$2,125
other 49% −$920
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.5% -4.6% 36% 36% +40.6%
≤30d 26 +27.0% +14.9% 42% 42% +24.3%
≤90d 26 +27.0% +14.9% 42% 42% +24.3%
all 26 +27.0% +14.9% 42% 42% +24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.9% 42% +24.3%
10% +3.9% 42% +12.4%
15% -6.1% 42% +1.5%
20% -15.3% 42% -8.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$261 vs −$110 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$1,721
Realized+$1,214
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions11
Markets (closed)26 / 37
History coverage15d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $456 $433 −$23 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $241 $233 −$8 (-3%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $235 $232 −$3 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $194 $214 +$20 (+11%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 50¢ 50¢ $204 $202 −$2 (-1%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $187 $200 +$13 (+7%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 21¢ 22¢ $86 $88 +$2 (+2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $64 $62 −$2 (-2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 10¢ $25 $37 +$13 (+50%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-36%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Yes 19¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Yes $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 24¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Yes 17¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 39¢ $799 $0 −$799 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Yes 16¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Yes 16¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 16¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Yes 28¢ $122 $0 −$122 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Yes 24¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 12¢ $127 $0 −$127 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$64 +217%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $244 +$449 +184%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $130 −$127 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $133 +$204 +153%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $167 +$345 +206%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $323 +$382 +118%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 07 $125 −$122 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 06 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 06 $65 +$72 +111%
Will Canada vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? Jun 06 $82 +$226 +276%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 04 $68 −$66 -98%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Greece end in a draw? Jun 04 $127 +$446 +352%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $223 +$164 +74%
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $147 +$367 +249%
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? Jun 03 $57 +$150 +262%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $814 −$799 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $43 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $52 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $66 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes $9 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $94 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $310 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $23 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $155 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $23 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $33 4h
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 27¢ $29 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $107 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $38 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $30 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $48 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $62 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $693 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $35 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $142 25h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $28 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 10¢ $82 26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $337 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $48 33h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $84 33h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,721.30 · official $1,721.30 (match) · 81 history records