Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:15:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe347…b438 other 834 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (282 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$28,300 (+45%) realized +$30,430 · open −$2,130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +133% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +79% what you keep after slip
Net edge+79%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%47W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day282.4pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$877now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$6,322
politics 16% −$1,305
tech 16% −$4,421
sports 13% −$122
culture 7% +$12
world 4% −$91
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% +$337
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (282 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+110.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +82.9% +65.5% 33% 24% -74.8%
≤30d 143 +132.9% +110.7% 33% 27% -75.8%
≤90d 143 +132.9% +110.7% 33% 27% -75.8%
all 143 +132.9% +110.7% 33% 27% -75.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover282.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +110.7% 27% -75.8%
10% ← realistic here +90.5% 24% -78.1%
15% +72.1% 23% -80.2%
20% +55.2% 22% -82.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +133% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +112% → late +154% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$119 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$877
Realized+$30,430
Unrealized−$2,130
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses47 / 96
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions480
Markets (closed)143 / 834
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$75
Trades / day282.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 480 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Yes 11¢ 66¢ $18 $105 +$87 (+499%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 17¢ 55¢ $24 $80 +$55 (+227%)
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? Yes 2¢ 94¢ $2 $64 +$62 (+3660%)
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 12¢ $15 $52 +$37 (+248%)
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 3¢ 24¢ $5 $39 +$35 (+709%)
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $13 $29 +$16 (+130%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 9¢ 36¢ $7 $28 +$21 (+302%)
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 1¢ 6¢ $5 $21 +$17 (+349%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 14¢ 48¢ $6 $20 +$14 (+232%)
Will Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+28%)
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes 2¢ 48¢ $1 $16 +$15 (+2108%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+54%)
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+14%)
Will Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+48%)
Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+27%)
Will Las Vegas Aces win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Yes 6¢ 20¢ $4 $11 +$8 (+212%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-14%)
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes 12¢ 52¢ $3 $11 +$8 (+312%)
Will Tunisia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $27 $10 −$16 (-62%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-24%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+22%)
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 12¢ 44¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+256%)
Will Carson Benge win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+240%)
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Seoul have between 130-140mm of precipitation in May? Jun 15 $0 $0 +132%
Will Verlina Reynolds-Jackson be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 +100%
Will Choi Min-ho win the 2026 Sejong mayoral election? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will Raffaele Giordano win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election? Jun 15 $0 +$39 +78750%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22? Jun 15 $0 $0 +801%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +419%
Will Min Hyung-bae win the 2026 Jeonnam–Gwangju mayoral election? Jun 15 $0 $0 +1700%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 +2803%
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 15 $0 $0 +2344%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 15 $0 $0 +2837%
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 19? Jun 15 $0 $0 +8%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 15 $0 $0 +47%
Will G2 Esports win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 15 $0 $0 +359%
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $81 −$68 -84%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $28 +$49 +177%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 15 $49 −$38 -79%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 15 $89 −$85 -95%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Jun 15 $40 −$39 -99%
Will Amazon have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Contro Jun 15 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Baidu have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control Jun 15 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Microsoft have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con Jun 15 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Japan be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 15 $45 −$44 -99%
Will USA finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 15 $33 +$1 +2%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 15 $58 +$35 +60%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 15 $488 −$381 -78%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 15 $111 +$137 +123%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 14 $141 −$129 -92%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $86 −$82 -96%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +694%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of USR? Jun 14 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Dan Rooney be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 14 $90 −$88 -98%
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Jun 14 $117 −$85 -73%
Will EC Juventude vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw? Jun 14 $205 −$176 -86%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 14 $17 −$8 -50%
Will Z.ai have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of AUR? Jun 14 $23 −$22 -97%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $21 −$11 -51%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da Jun 13 $38 −$37 -96%
Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 13 $544 −$438 -81%
Will Liam Lawson win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 13 $748 −$702 -94%
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 13 $173 −$159 -92%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o Jun 13 $39 −$36 -93%
Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 40m
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 40m
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 40m
Will Jordan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 43m
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Australia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Australia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Uzbekistan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Australia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $74 1h
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $74 1h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 70¢ $52 1h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 32¢ $25 1h
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $74 1h
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $75 1h
Will New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 2h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $876.98 · official $858.24 · 3500 history records