Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:32:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E3 0xe34a…f5f0 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$144 (+18%) realized +$154 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip

Net edge+5%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown52%max

Avg bet$159per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$472now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+13.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+25.9%	+13.9%	50%	50%	+26.9%
≤30d	2	+25.9%	+13.9%	50%	50%	+26.9%
≤90d	2	+25.9%	+13.9%	50%	50%	+26.9%
all	2	+25.9%	+13.9%	50%	50%	+26.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+13.9%	50%	+26.9%
10%	+3.0%	50%	+14.7%
15%	-6.9%	50%	+3.6%
20%	-16.1%	50%	-6.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +40% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$301 vs −$158 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$472

Realized+$154

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$159

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown52%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Team Falcons	58¢	74¢	$202	$257	+$54 (+27%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	FURIA	27¢	26¢	$203	$196	−$7 (-3%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	12¢	10¢	$21	$18	−$3 (-12%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	2¢	2¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-34%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$159	−$158	-99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$199	+$301	+152%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY FURIA	26¢	$105	46m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY FURIA	29¢	$102	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	58¢	$97	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	58¢	$107	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	79¢	$159	16h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	12¢	$19	16h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	12¢	$2	16h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	2¢	$1	18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	39¢	$199	18h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $471.71 · official $471.77 (match) · 10 history records