Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:06:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe34c…de04 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$149 (-28%) realized −$149 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$52
sports 39% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-60.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -56.0% -60.2% 20% 20% -51.7%
≤30d 5 -56.0% -60.2% 20% 20% -51.7%
≤90d 5 -56.0% -60.2% 20% 20% -51.7%
all 5 -56.0% -60.2% 20% 20% -51.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.2% 20% -51.7%
10% -64.0% 20% -56.3%
15% -67.5% 0% -60.6%
20% -70.7% 0% -64.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$44 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India Australia 69¢ 68¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $93 $94 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 +$25 +24%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 57¢ $49 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY Australia 69¢ $101 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $76 17h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $126 37h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 40h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $102 42h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $95 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.16 · official $193.16 (match) · 12 history records