Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:24:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E3 0xe350…b9f5 world 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 327d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 34L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$8
other 17% −$4
culture 9% $0
sports 5% $0
finance 2% +$1
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.4% -11.7% 38% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 28 +0.6% -8.9% 43% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 36 +0.5% -9.1% 39% 3% -9.4%
all 52 +0.4% -9.2% 35% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

327d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage327d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $107 −$5 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $44 −$8 -19%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $114 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $382 −$7 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $146 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $124 +$6 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $238 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $111 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $233 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -12%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $81 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $247 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $108 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $122 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $111 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $457 −$3 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $53 −$4 -7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $298 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $8 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $72 +$5 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $440 +$3 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $140 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $124 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $95 +$7 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $24 +$13 +54%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $61 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 19 $58 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $205 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $97 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $143 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $105 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $96 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 16 $160 −$1 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $262 −$1 -0%
Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $161 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $167 −$1 -1%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $147 +$1 +0%
Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5) Mar 12 $162 $0 +0%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 11 $146 $0 -0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $48 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Dec 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $14 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 29 $27 $0 +1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $29 24m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $32 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $70 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $22 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $84 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $36 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $44 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $80 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $114 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $114 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $118 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $18 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $0 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $128 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $128 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $128 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $127 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $107 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $8 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $53 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $65 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 12¢ $14 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $50 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $60 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 260 history records