Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:18:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

E3 0xe351…5c45 other 26 markets active 170d ago coverage 328d ⚠

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 327d only

✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$49,026 (+123%) realized +$49,026 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +229% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +164% what you keep after slip

Net edge+164%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate50%13W / 13L

Whale WR29%big bets

Drawdown28%max

Avg bet$1,536per market

Trades / day10.6pace

Kalshi-fit8%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)+197.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	26	+228.7%	+197.4%	50%	42%	+118.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.6 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+197.4%	42%	+118.4%
10% ← realistic here	+168.9%	35%	+97.5%
15%	+142.9%	35%	+78.5%
20%	+119.1%	31%	+61.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

15% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +229% · $-wt +140% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 29% (≥$2,257) big bets weaker

Persistence

early +366% → late +91% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

113.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$6,167 vs −$1,828 · ×3.37 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.37 per $1 lost it wins $3.37

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

328d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$49,026

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses13 / 13

Whale WR (big bets)29%

Open positions0

Markets (closed)26 / 26

History coverage328d ⚠

Avg bet$1,536

Trades / day10.6

Drawdown28%

Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 26 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?	Apr 29	$7	−$7	-100%
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	Jan 10	$84	−$84	-100%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Jan 10	$51	+$33	+64%
Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?	Feb 28	$3,846	+$8,320	+216%
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	Feb 28	$493	+$40	+8%
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 28 - March 7?	Feb 28	$80	+$4	+5%
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 28 - March 7?	Feb 28	$41	+$5	+11%
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 28 - March 7?	Feb 28	$80	+$9	+11%
Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28?	Feb 28	$3,656	−$4,170	-114%
Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 21-28?	Feb 28	$1,917	−$2,714	-142%
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28?	Feb 28	$4,303	+$36,677	+852%
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28?	Feb 28	$2,257	−$489	-22%
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 21-28?	Feb 27	$360	+$1,589	+442%
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 21-28?	Feb 27	$80	+$1,600	+2000%
Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 21-28?	Feb 26	$1,624	−$633	-39%
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 21-28?	Feb 26	$6,171	−$5,594	-91%
Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Feb 21-28?	Feb 25	$61	+$609	+1000%
Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28?	Feb 25	$456	−$53	-12%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28?	Feb 25	$2,455	−$2,205	-90%
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 14-21?	Feb 21	$6,493	−$4,979	-77%
Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 14-21?	Feb 21	$504	−$501	-99%
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 14-21?	Feb 21	$1,190	−$1,179	-99%
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 14-21?	Feb 21	$1,480	−$1,157	-78%
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21?	Feb 21	$1,584	+$28,103	+1774%
Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 14-21?	Feb 21	$599	+$3,163	+528%
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?	Feb 18	$55	+$22	+40%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	BUY Yes	7¢	$84	170d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	SELL Yes	21¢	$50	170d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	SELL Yes	22¢	$33	170d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	BUY Yes	13¢	$51	173d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?	BUY Yes	48¢	$7	431d
Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?	SELL Yes	0¢	$26	485d
Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	485d
Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	86¢	$5	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	86¢	$60	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	86¢	$26	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	86¢	$60	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	86¢	$12	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	86¢	$53	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	86¢	$1	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	86¢	$36	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	86¢	$16	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	86¢	$17	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	86¢	$15	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	86¢	$60	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	86¢	$17	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	86¢	$1	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	86¢	$55	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	89¢	$5	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	89¢	$31	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	89¢	$9	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	89¢	$8	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	89¢	$6	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	89¢	$27	485d
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?	SELL No	89¢	$4	485d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records