Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:20:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E3 0xe354…4a39 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$807 (+66%) realized +$844 · open −$37

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip

Net edge+19%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown1%max

Avg bet$305per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+19.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-4.4%	-13.5%	0%	0%	-13.5%
≤30d	2	-4.4%	-13.5%	0%	0%	-13.5%
≤90d	3	+31.7%	+19.1%	33%	33%	+65.6%
all	3	+31.7%	+19.1%	33%	33%	+65.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+19.1%	33%	+65.6%
10%	+7.7%	33%	+49.7%
15%	-2.7%	33%	+35.3%
20%	-12.2%	33%	+22.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +83% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +32% · $-wt +83% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$844 vs −$4 · ×200.68 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×100.34 per $1 lost it wins $100.34

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage

Net worth$170

Realized+$844

Unrealized−$37

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage56d

Avg bet$305

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown1%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	7¢	$206	$170	−$37 (-18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$95	−$5	-5%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Jun 19	$98	−$3	-4%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	May 16	$813	+$844	+104%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$90	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$95	1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	SELL Yes	66¢	$95	1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	67¢	$98	1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$77	3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$135	33d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	SELL Yes	85¢	$1,657	33d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	BUY Yes	42¢	$813	55d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.