Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe355…a1f9 crypto 147 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,649 (-13%) realized −$2,647 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%74W / 71L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$328est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2,736
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$3,214
crypto 10% −$66
politics 2% −$23
other 1% +$48
world 0% −$4
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +4.7% -5.3% 74% 67% -9.6%
≤30d 71 -6.0% -14.9% 65% 56% -39.9%
≤90d 145 -14.6% -22.7% 51% 44% -24.8%
all 145 -14.6% -22.7% 51% 44% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 44% -24.8%
10% -30.1% 35% -32.0%
15% -36.9% 23% -38.5%
20% -43.1% 12% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -27% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$81 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$2,647
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses74 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$328
Open positions2
Markets (closed)145 / 147
History coverage43d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 83¢ 78¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-6%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $56 +$12 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$27 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $66 −$35 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 27 $56 +$22 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$25 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $76 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $56 −$12 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$4 +12%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) Jun 27 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $9 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.95 · official $23.95 (match) · 425 history records