Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:20:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E3 0xe358…b8e9 other 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$30
politics 31% −$15
sports 15% −$1
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 92 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 131 -3.3% -12.5% 7% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 5% -9.6%
10% -20.9% 4% -18.3%
15% -28.5% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.5% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×8.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage131d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $390 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 12 $568 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $206 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $210 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $214 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $472 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $250 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $260 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $275 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $220 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $192 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $275 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $213 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $263 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $255 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $196 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $268 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $253 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $275 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $215 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $216 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $199 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 24 $257 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $231 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $423 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $269 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $234 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $201 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $215 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 21 $278 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $968 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $314 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $434 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $205 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $214 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $489 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $451 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 16 $1,157 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $39 4d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 9d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 10d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $215 26d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $215 30d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $250 31d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $250 35d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $213 37d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $214 38d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $206 42d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $206 43d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $210 43d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $210 43d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $214 43d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $214 43d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 43d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $224 44d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $250 45d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $250 45d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $260 45d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $260 45d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $275 46d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $275 46d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $220 46d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $220 46d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $192 46d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $192 46d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $275 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 409 history records