Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:18:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe35c…be03 crypto 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$832 (-29%) realized −$823 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%45W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$225
14 days−$993
30 days−$1,059
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$1,149
sports 32% −$317
crypto 23% +$7
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -92.5% -93.2% 0% 0% -92.3%
≤30d 48 -30.3% -36.9% 38% 38% -42.9%
≤90d 126 -26.1% -33.1% 36% 35% -37.4%
all 126 -26.1% -33.1% 36% 35% -37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 35% -37.4%
10% -39.5% 32% -43.4%
15% -45.4% 29% -48.9%
20% -50.7% 25% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$27 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$823
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses45 / 81
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage40d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 43¢ $39 $31 −$9 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $139 −$136 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$32 -65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$64 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 −$196 -196%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $350 −$690 -197%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $100 +$158 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $150 +$31 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gra Jun 07 $5 −$10 -196%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $26 −$50 -196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $15 +$3 +17%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gran Jun 07 $5 +$7 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 04 $15 +$19 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 04 $20 +$15 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$10 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$10 -195%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $100 +$45 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 26 $5 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $40 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $139 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 12d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $350 13d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $258 13d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $100 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $150 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $15 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.59 · official $31.37 (match) · 268 history records