Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe35d…0de2 other 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,044 (-4%) realized −$1,078 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate56%68W / 53L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$2,347now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$93
14 days−$264
30 days−$677
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$750
crypto 18% +$8
sports 4% −$523
finance 2% +$3
world 1% +$4
politics 1% +$4
economics 1% +$3
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -70.2% -73.0% 29% 6% -8.7%
≤30d 57 -48.3% -53.2% 51% 4% -13.2%
≤90d 121 -35.7% -41.9% 56% 5% -14.3%
all 121 -35.7% -41.9% 56% 5% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.9% 5% -14.3%
10% -47.4% 4% -22.5%
15% -52.5% 2% -30.0%
20% -57.2% 0% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$32 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$2,347
Realized−$1,078
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses68 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions62
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage61d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 62 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $552 $556 +$4 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $542 $541 −$1 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $493 $494 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $417 $417 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $24 $28 +$3 (+14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $26 +$9 (+55%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $25 +$7 (+40%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $19 −$3 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 18¢ $2 $18 +$17 (+1007%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $18 −$5 (-20%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+26%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $2 $13 +$12 (+701%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+569%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $2 $10 +$9 (+527%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $2 $10 +$9 (+521%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1,493 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $629 +$79 +13%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $616 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $298 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $792 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1,772 +$14 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1,296 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $236 +$64 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $888 +$12 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,996 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $374 −$360 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $307 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $319 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $299 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $298 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 29? May 29 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $298 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $149 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $149 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 26 $148 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $199 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $397 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $555 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $543 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $494 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $434 10h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 10h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 10h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 10h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 10h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 10h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 10h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 10h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $89 10h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 10h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 10h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 10h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $75 10h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,346.74 · official $2,346.97 (match) · 411 history records