Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe35d…f5d5 politics 550 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 159d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,688 (+5%) realized +$14,660 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate90%490W / 54L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$563per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$2,136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 160d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$8,968
other 31% +$3,599
world 5% −$99
crypto 3% +$400
culture 3% +$234
sports 2% +$73
finance 1% +$12
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.2% -7.5% 75% 33% -7.8%
≤30d 42 +10.0% -0.5% 81% 33% -11.5%
≤90d 220 +8.5% -1.9% 90% 21% -8.1%
all 544 +7.1% -3.1% 90% 18% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 18% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.3% 10% -19.5%
15% -20.8% 6% -27.2%
20% -28.6% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$644) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$252 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$2,136
Realized+$14,660
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses490 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)544 / 550
History coverage160d ⚠
Avg bet$563
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 544 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Noah Kahan have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? No 100¢ 100¢ $708 $708 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kanye West have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? No 100¢ 100¢ $663 $663 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 68¢ 81¢ $376 $447 +$71 (+19%)
Will Billie Eilish have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? No 99¢ 100¢ $235 $236 +$1 (+0%)
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 17¢ $95 $48 −$46 (-49%)
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes $31 $33 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $158 −$8 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $153 +$9 +6%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 17 $11 +$6 +55%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 Jun 15 $211 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 15 $3 $0 -11%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 15 $95 +$16 +16%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 15 $41 −$33 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $130 +$37 +28%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 14 $75 +$10 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 11 $322 +$12 +4%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 11 $1,427 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 10 $40 +$17 +44%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 Jun 10 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 10 $31 +$17 +56%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 09 $235 +$15 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $169 +$23 +14%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June Jun 04 $285 +$150 +53%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 04 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June Jun 01 $19 +$2 +11%
Will Kanye West have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Jun 01 $326 +$4 +1%
Will Noah Kahan have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners May 31 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June May 31 $12 +$6 +54%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, May 31 $150 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, May 31 $320 +$9 +3%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, May 31 $817 +$10 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 31 $996 +$4 +0%
Will Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Air Force Academy Address? May 28 $138 +$8 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $57 +$10 +18%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June May 27 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 26 $326 +$5 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 25 $46 +$3 +7%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 23 $7 −$3 -40%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 23 $75 +$32 +42%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $899 −$670 -75%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 23 $2 +$3 +182%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1,179 +$21 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $52 −$4 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $77 −$10 -13%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, May 20 $475 +$16 +4%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $362 +$2 +1%
Will Drake feature Kendrick Lamar on ICEMAN? May 15 $870 +$8 +1%
Will "Pyramid" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Exper May 13 $114 +$1 +1%
Will "Instagram" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Exp May 13 $123 +$1 +1%
Will "Dinosaur" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Expe May 13 $192 +$2 +1%
Will "Guitar" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experi May 13 $128 +$2 +2%
Will "Right" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experie May 13 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, May 12 $4,809 +$11 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $71 43m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $78 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $162 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $58 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $95 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $67 3h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June SELL Yes 36¢ $17 12h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY Yes 20¢ $2 22h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY Yes 20¢ $0 23h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY Yes 22¢ $9 25h
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY No 100¢ $211 2d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL Yes 39¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL Yes $6 2d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 28¢ $12 2d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL Yes 51¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL Yes 55¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 11¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,135.63 · official $2,135.63 (match) · 3500 history records