Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe35f…210a world 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate46%32W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$11
sports 24% −$35
other 19% +$18
politics 8% $0
economics 7% $0
finance 1% −$1
weather 0% +$6
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.0% -8.7% 38% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 29 +0.3% -9.2% 48% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 49 -0.7% -10.1% 45% 0% -9.8%
all 69 -2.0% -11.3% 46% 9% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 9% -10.2%
10% -19.8% 9% -18.8%
15% -27.5% 7% -26.6%
20% -34.6% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses32 / 37
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage532d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $67 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $31 $0 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $57 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $29 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $29 +$3 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $27 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $79 −$2 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $27 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $27 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $13 +$1 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $23 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $64 −$3 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $29 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $61 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $24 −$1 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $47 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $66 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $26 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $26 −$3 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $29 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $20 −$8 -42%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $35 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $77 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $227 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $226 +$1 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $225 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $229 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $226 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $249 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $160 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $29 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $28 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $31 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $31 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $19 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $9 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 46h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $28 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $28 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $28 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $28 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $28 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $28 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $28 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $29 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $32 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $29 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $7 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $7 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $26 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 240 history records