Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:47:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe366…5859 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$12 (+9%) realized +$28 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$5
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -28.9% -35.7% 36% 36% +0.1%
≤30d 14 -28.9% -35.7% 36% 36% +0.1%
≤90d 14 -28.9% -35.7% 36% 36% +0.1%
all 14 -28.9% -35.7% 36% 36% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 36% +0.1%
10% -41.8% 36% -9.5%
15% -47.5% 21% -18.2%
20% -52.6% 7% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×3.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 92¢ 38¢ $28 $11 −$16 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 +$8 +53%
Lionel Messi: 2+ assists Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 $0 -6%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -12%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 +$4 +23%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$6 +25%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -66%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $28 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $19 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 15h
Lionel Messi: 2+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $3 18h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 44¢ $3 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 18h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $3 18h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $2 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $13 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL No 70¢ $3 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $2 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.31 · official $11.31 (match) · 29 history records