Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E3 0xe368…e9ed sports 345 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,320 (-12%) realized −$1,406 · open +$86
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%120W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day30.5pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days−$325
14 days−$1,295
30 days−$1,497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$916
other 22% −$410
crypto 2% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 -11.5% -20.0% 38% 38% -16.2%
≤30d 343 -16.1% -24.1% 35% 35% -22.4%
≤90d 343 -16.1% -24.1% 35% 35% -22.4%
all 343 -16.1% -24.1% 35% 35% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.1% 35% -22.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 34% -29.8%
15% -38.0% 34% -36.6%
20% -44.1% 33% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$29 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized−$1,406
Unrealized+$86
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses120 / 223
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions2
Markets (closed)343 / 345
History coverage17d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Fritz 55¢ 88¢ $80 $127 +$47 (+59%)
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Noskova 52¢ 100¢ $42 $81 +$39 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $29 +$26 +90%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 +$36 +119%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 −$31 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 +$54 +93%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$119 +388%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 +$127 +413%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $34 −$33 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $19 +$15 +76%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$34 -98%
Talia Gibson vs. Qinwen Zheng: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 +$35 +71%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) Jun 17 $53 +$23 +43%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $30 +$23 +79%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) Jun 17 $23 −$23 -98%
Yulia Starodubtseva vs. Emma Navarro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$33 +165%
Set Handicap: Starodubtseva (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $18 −$18 -97%
Set Handicap: Perot (-1.5) vs Jade (+1.5) Jun 17 $19 +$38 +198%
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Jun 17 $40 −$39 -99%
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$43 +109%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Set Handicap: Ambrogi (-1.5) vs Heredia (+1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $49 +$86 +176%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $47 −$46 -98%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $81 +$15 +19%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $59 +$22 +37%
Set Handicap: Lamens (-1.5) vs Badosa (+1.5) Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $39 +$20 +52%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $32 −$31 -99%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $40 +$22 +54%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $59 +$30 +51%
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Kovacevic (+1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $18 +$25 +143%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $28 −$1 -3%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $50 +$67 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) BUY Fritz 55¢ $81 1h
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) BUY Noskova 52¢ $43 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $19 12h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 45¢ $30 12h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $29 12h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $31 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 12h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $150 12h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 19¢ $19 13h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 20¢ $31 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $58 13h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $158 13h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $34 13h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $34 13h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $19 14h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $31 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $35 15h
Talia Gibson vs. Qinwen Zheng: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2.5 99¢ $85 15h
Talia Gibson vs. Qinwen Zheng: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 57¢ $49 16h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $27 17h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) SELL Sabalenka 100¢ $76 17h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) BUY Sabalenka 69¢ $53 17h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $53 17h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 55¢ $30 20h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) BUY Auger-Aliassime 36¢ $23 20h
Yulia Starodubtseva vs. Emma Navarro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 100¢ $53 20h
Yulia Starodubtseva vs. Emma Navarro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 37¢ $20 22h
Set Handicap: Starodubtseva (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) BUY Starodubtseva 19¢ $19 22h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic $18 23h
Set Handicap: Perot (-1.5) vs Jade (+1.5) SELL Perot 100¢ $58 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.01 · official $198.89 · 737 history records