Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E3 0xe368…d3f7 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% $0
other 22% +$2
politics 11% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 3% +$1
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 10% -8.6%
≤30d 19 +3.6% -6.2% 42% 11% -9.2%
≤90d 19 +3.6% -6.2% 42% 11% -9.2%
all 40 +0.0% -9.5% 45% 8% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 8% -9.1%
10% -18.2% 5% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 5% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage476d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -9%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $29 +$2 +6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $24 −$1 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $27 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $13 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $27 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $34 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $19 $0 +2%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 08 $2 $0 -4%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Yoo Seong-min be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 07 $1 $0 -11%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 04 $18 +$1 +3%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government? Mar 28 $19 $0 +1%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 26 $1 $0 +41%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 25 $17 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $17 $0 +1%
Will Mercedes record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing? Mar 21 $17 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 87¢ $30 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $30 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $30 22h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $29 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 38h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 87¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $23 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $24 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $24 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $24 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $27 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $8 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $8 8d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $7 8d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $15 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.69 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records