Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:51:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe369…af6e crypto 838 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$568 (-8%) realized −$568 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate47%394W / 444L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$57
14 days−$97
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$607
world 1% −$3
politics 0% −$11
other 0% +$3
sports 0% +$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -26.8% -33.8% 47% 12% -35.7%
≤30d 130 -17.2% -25.1% 43% 38% -30.6%
≤90d 434 -41.7% -47.3% 28% 26% -32.9%
all 838 -25.3% -32.4% 47% 30% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 30% -18.8%
10% -38.9% 24% -26.5%
15% -44.8% 15% -33.6%
20% -50.2% 14% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$568
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses394 / 444
Open positions0
Markets (closed)838 / 838
History coverage233d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 838 Trades
no open positions (58 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 09 $30 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2PM ET Jun 08 $9 +$9 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$11 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1PM ET Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10AM ET Jun 06 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET Jun 05 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET Jun 05 $9 +$9 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6PM ET Jun 04 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4PM ET Jun 04 $9 +$11 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$5 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3PM ET Jun 03 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2891 history records