Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe36e…332e sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$57 (-8%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$115
other 9% −$5
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -17.4% -25.3% 41% 34% -24.8%
≤30d 29 -17.4% -25.3% 41% 34% -24.8%
≤90d 29 -17.4% -25.3% 41% 34% -24.8%
all 29 -17.4% -25.3% 41% 34% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 34% -24.8%
10% -32.4% 28% -32.0%
15% -39.0% 21% -38.6%
20% -44.9% 17% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage6d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$10 +276%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$12 +474%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $131 −$130 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $140 +$9 +6%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $90 +$11 +12%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $71 +$25 +36%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $60 +$13 +22%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $40 +$13 +32%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$17 +82%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $30 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 5h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 14h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 14h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 14h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 15h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 15h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 15h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 15h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 80¢ $121 23h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 72¢ $10 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 27h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 94¢ $130 29h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 92¢ $10 29h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $101 32h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 88¢ $50 32h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 90¢ $30 32h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 88¢ $10 32h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $96 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $60 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $74 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records