Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:41:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe36f…0b21 world 45 markets active 8h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate43%19W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$5
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$1
other 17% +$6
sports 3% −$5
politics 2% −$8
finance 1% $0
weather 0% −$10
economics 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 +0.5% -9.1% 48% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 26 -2.7% -12.0% 42% 8% -9.4%
all 44 +8.3% -2.0% 43% 16% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 16% -9.8%
10% -11.4% 11% -18.4%
15% -20.0% 11% -26.3%
20% -27.8% 9% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses19 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage522d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 70¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $73 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $26 +$4 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $75 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $245 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $50 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $38 −$2 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $52 −$2 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $23 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $563 −$3 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $32 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $2 $0 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $20 $0 -2%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $271 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 12 $16 +$3 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $14 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $292 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 23 $8 −$8 -95%
New Mexico vs. Nevada Mar 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-04? Mar 04 $22 $0 -2%
Jets vs. Islanders Mar 04 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? Mar 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Kings vs. Mavericks Mar 04 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 10? Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Aliskerov vs. Muniz Mar 04 $12 $0 -2%
Taylor Swift shown O/U 7.5 times on broadcast? Feb 10 $3 +$3 +133%
Will the January unemployment rate be less than or equal to 4.0%? Feb 09 $3 +$9 +270%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on February 7? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Less than 350 Detainers Lodged in next ICE update? Feb 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31? Feb 03 $2 +$7 +475%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Jan 30 $6 $0 +4%
Mungo vs. MINH Jan 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 24 $2 +$1 +48%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 23 $7 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $16 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $16 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 39h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $5 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $27 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $33 46h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $27 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $5 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 71¢ $30 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $9 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $20 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $29 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $26 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $4 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.48 · official $0.00 (match) · 170 history records