Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:32:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E3 0xe373…b097 politics 50 markets active 6d ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+6%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate81%34W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$23
sports 26% +$74
crypto 13% +$2
other 11% −$31
weather 1% $0
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 42 +2.0% -7.7% 81% 14% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 14% -4.1%
10% -16.6% 7% -13.3%
15% -24.6% 7% -21.7%
20% -32.0% 5% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses34 / 8
Open positions8
Markets (closed)42 / 50
History coverage595d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mauricio Dubón win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nathaniel Lowe win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Carlos Santana win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Instants, an Instagram app be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Sto Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 22 $143 +$24 +17%
Thunder vs. Rockets Jan 17 $60 +$38 +64%
Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5) Jan 16 $124 +$45 +36%
Rockets vs. Clippers: O/U 218.5 Jan 11 $33 +$30 +92%
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) Dec 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win LoL Worlds 2025? Dec 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will Michelle Bachelet win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 24 $13 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Dec 24 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Francesca Muñoz win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 03 $56 −$5 -8%
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Oct 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Oct 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $24 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - September 17, 3PM ET Sep 23 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 3PM ET Sep 23 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 17, 3PM ET Sep 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,500 on September 17 at 4PM ET? Sep 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $16 +$3 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 20 $56 −$43 -76%
Pump.fun airdrop in Q3 2025? Jul 09 $64 +$11 +18%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? Jun 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? Jun 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? Jun 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? Jun 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Left Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislati Apr 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the Serie A? Apr 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will AS Roma win the Serie A? Apr 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the People-Animals-Nature Party win the most seats in the 2025 Po Apr 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Nov 25 $104 $0 +0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 24 $104 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Santana win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will Nathaniel Lowe win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will Mauricio Dubón win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will Instants, an Instagram app be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Sto BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 146d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 146d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $52 146d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $32 146d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 146d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 147d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $21 147d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $39 147d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 147d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 150d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 150d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 150d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 150d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.28 · official $79.28 (match) · 279 history records