Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe377…fcc1 crypto 1121 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$680 (-8%) realized −$677 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%510W / 591L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$30
14 days+$13
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$531
other 10% +$46
sports 6% −$114
world 0% −$5
culture 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 +10.7% +0.2% 26% 26% -3.6%
≤30d 267 -2.9% -12.1% 39% 36% -13.4%
≤90d 496 -6.6% -15.5% 43% 40% -16.0%
all 1101 -5.7% -14.7% 46% 42% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 42% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 35% -24.4%
15% -30.3% 27% -31.7%
20% -37.2% 22% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$677
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses510 / 591
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1101 / 1121
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 1101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 61¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 64¢ 67¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 Over 34¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals Yes 10¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Yes 32¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners Over 41¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Under 37¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Yes 24¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Amad Diallo: 2+ goals Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Yan Diomandé: 2+ goals Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 234 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $4 +$4 +101%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $3 +$22 +712%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 25 $4 +$4 +90%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 25 $2 +$14 +674%
Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals Jun 24 $2 +$9 +442%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -75%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $2 +$2 +113%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $2 +$4 +180%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$9 -92%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $2 +$10 +510%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $5 +$6 +114%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $2 +$3 +158%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $5 $0 -9%
Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3 +$2 +79%
Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $2 −$2 -87%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -65%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -43%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -68%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Amad Diallo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Yan Diomandé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 41¢ $2 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $4 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $2 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $4 21h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $4 21h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $2 21h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $2 21h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 21h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 21h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.51 · official $81.51 (match) · 3500 history records