Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe378…148e other 317 markets active 13h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$988 (-5%) realized −$988 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate67%212W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days−$40
14 days+$276
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$440
crypto 15% −$193
sports 13% −$398
world 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -7.1% -15.9% 64% 57% -11.8%
≤30d 57 -2.6% -11.9% 72% 61% -8.1%
≤90d 170 -10.3% -18.8% 67% 52% -16.8%
all 317 -4.7% -13.8% 67% 52% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 52% -13.8%
10% -22.0% 36% -22.0%
15% -29.6% 23% -29.5%
20% -36.5% 15% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$51 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$988
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses212 / 105
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)317 / 317
History coverage156d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 317 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $97 +$68 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $81 +$16 +20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $63 +$18 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $114 +$65 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $65 −$64 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $194 +$77 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $114 +$80 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $115 −$114 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $184 +$84 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $116 +$72 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $125 −$123 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $115 +$11 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $115 −$113 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $114 +$48 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $115 +$36 +31%
Will France win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $114 +$12 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $95 +$16 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $78 +$17 +22%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $101 −$24 -24%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki Jun 08 $82 +$19 +23%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $68 +$16 +23%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $57 +$11 +18%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $48 +$9 +19%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $81 +$45 +56%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $81 +$23 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $164 +$16 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $127 +$37 +29%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $118 +$8 +6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $91 +$28 +30%
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $76 −$74 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $58 +$18 +30%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $58 −$58 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $116 −$113 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $116 +$135 +116%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $115 −$113 -98%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $115 −$114 -98%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $111 −$85 -77%
Will Málaga CF vs. Real Racing Club end in a draw? May 24 $111 +$25 +22%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $39 −$38 -99%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $100 +$13 +13%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $81 +$43 +53%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $63 +$20 +31%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $150 +$12 +8%
Bilbao Basket vs. Basquet Girona May 24 $115 +$35 +31%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $71 −$70 -98%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $65 +$13 +20%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $116 +$24 +21%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $89 +$3 +4%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $182 +$79 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $97 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $81 15h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $81 36h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $63 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $114 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $65 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $194 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $194 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $114 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $115 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $184 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $187 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $116 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $115 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $125 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $126 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $115 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $115 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $162 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $114 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 99¢ $150 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 75¢ $115 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 82¢ $127 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 73¢ $114 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 85¢ $95 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 99¢ $95 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 81¢ $78 11d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Denis Shapovalov 62¢ $77 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 659 history records