Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe37a…844d weather 301 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$25 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%209W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$39
14 days−$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 +6.6% -3.6% 86% 86% -3.6%
≤30d 225 +2.3% -7.5% 84% 84% -9.1%
≤90d 260 +2.0% -7.8% 80% 80% -9.0%
all 260 +2.0% -7.8% 80% 80% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 80% -9.0%
10% -16.6% 42% -17.7%
15% -24.6% 10% -25.6%
20% -32.0% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses209 / 51
Open positions41
Markets (closed)260 / 301
History coverage74d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? No 77¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? No 79¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? No 80¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 81¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? No 81¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? No 81¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? No 81¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? No 81¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? No 81¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 19? No 79¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? No 73¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? No 76¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? No 77¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 78¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? No 78¢ 83¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? No 80¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? No 81¢ 85¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 80¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? No 77¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? No 81¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? No 71¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 80¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 17? No 76¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? No 81¢ 77¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 18? No 79¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 81¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 79¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 81¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 71¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $7 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 78¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 29h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 29h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $5 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.34 · official $192.53 (match) · 590 history records