Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe37c…ef29 crypto 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$326 (-29%) realized −$326 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%34W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day83.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$112
other 36% −$301
sports 8% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -27.8% -34.7% 44% 38% -45.8%
≤30d 78 -27.8% -34.7% 44% 38% -45.8%
≤90d 78 -27.8% -34.7% 44% 38% -45.8%
all 78 -27.8% -34.7% 44% 38% -45.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.7% 38% -45.8%
10% ← realistic here -40.9% 26% -51.0%
15% -46.7% 17% -55.7%
20% -51.9% 12% -60.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$326
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses34 / 44
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage4d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day83.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $94 −$22 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $37 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$6 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $49 +$13 +27%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $24 −$16 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$8 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 +$28 +111%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 336 history records