Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E3 0xe37d…bbe8 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized −$4 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$6
sports 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -25.0% -32.1% 50% 50% -10.4%
≤30d 8 -25.0% -32.1% 50% 50% -10.4%
≤90d 8 -25.0% -32.1% 50% 50% -10.4%
all 8 -25.0% -32.1% 50% 50% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 50% -10.4%
10% -38.6% 38% -18.9%
15% -44.5% 25% -26.8%
20% -50.0% 12% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$109 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $300 $304 +$4 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 −$7 -35%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 +$4 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $708 +$282 +40%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $91 +$72 +79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $201 +$65 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $12 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 2h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 2h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 88¢ $990 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $708 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 38h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $266 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $91 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.92 · official $354.92 (match) · 23 history records