Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe37e…6d97 sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,872 (+5%) realized +$1,758 · open +$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%34W / 29L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$544per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$385est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$687now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$262
7 days+$262
14 days+$262
30 days+$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$2,270
other 7% −$239
crypto 0% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +43.9% +30.2% 83% 83% +16.9%
≤30d 6 +43.9% +30.2% 83% 83% +16.9%
≤90d 63 -4.2% -13.4% 54% 52% -4.7%
all 63 -4.2% -13.4% 54% 52% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 52% -4.7%
10% -21.6% 48% -13.8%
15% -29.2% 38% -22.2%
20% -36.2% 29% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$684) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$281 vs −$267 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$687
Realized+$1,758
Unrealized+$114
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses34 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$385
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage46d
Avg bet$544
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage FlyQuest 36¢ 100¢ $247 $687 +$439 (+178%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW - Map 2 Winner SAW 65¢ 0¢ $325 $0 −$325 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 27 $217 +$112 +51%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $104 +$114 +110%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $210 +$96 +46%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $99 +$112 +113%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $69 +$30 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $90 −$89 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $540 −$138 -26%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 1 Winner May 18 $420 +$498 +118%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner May 17 $1,908 +$1,273 +67%
LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas - Game 1 Winner May 17 $3,158 +$1,017 +32%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 17 $3,826 −$666 -17%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2,090 −$301 -14%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner May 17 $1,459 +$576 +40%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD - Game 3 Winner May 17 $1,513 +$579 +38%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $1,593 +$1,377 +86%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 17 $993 +$603 +61%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 17 $684 +$308 +45%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 17 $1,292 −$1,279 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner May 17 $248 −$242 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 17 $1,237 +$305 +25%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $993 +$243 +24%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 17 $741 +$252 +34%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 17 $648 −$642 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner May 17 $695 −$688 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $476 +$220 +46%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 17 $464 +$12 +3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $557 −$552 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 17 $363 −$356 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 17 $49 +$28 +57%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 17 $160 −$111 -70%
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 4.5 May 17 $69 +$91 +132%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $102 −$33 -32%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $56 +$46 +82%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $100 −$44 -44%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 16 $84 +$100 +118%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $62 −$61 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 16 $492 −$489 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner May 16 $504 −$496 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $247 −$244 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $1,079 +$164 +15%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 16 $681 +$397 +58%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 16 $169 +$151 +89%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner May 16 $298 +$63 +21%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $291 −$289 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 16 $168 −$156 -93%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 16 $129 +$39 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 36¢ $252 38m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW - Map 2 Winner BUY SAW 65¢ $329 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea SELL Mentality Monster 100¢ $329 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 65¢ $217 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL D family 100¢ $217 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 47¢ $104 3h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY D family 66¢ $101 3h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY D family 67¢ $101 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 100¢ $306 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 68¢ $210 6h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 46¢ $99 12h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 69¢ $69 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 38d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 47¢ $90 38d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 54¢ $131 39d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 28¢ $120 39d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 78¢ $342 39d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 21¢ $56 39d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 24¢ $67 39d
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 1 Winner SELL FlyQuest 100¢ $918 40d
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 1 Winner BUY FlyQuest 45¢ $420 40d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $1,891 40d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $713 40d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner SELL GamerLegion 59¢ $1,290 40d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner BUY GamerLegion 53¢ $1,195 40d
LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas - Game 1 Winner SELL Sentinels 100¢ $4,175 40d
LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas - Game 1 Winner BUY Sentinels 75¢ $3,158 40d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 61¢ $1,469 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $687.16 · official $687.16 (match) · 134 history records