Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:23:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe384…c8f3 world 26 markets active 2d ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate60%15W / 10L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$7
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$8
other 11% $0
crypto 2% +$1
weather 2% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.4% -4.6% 60% 20% -6.8%
≤30d 13 +2.3% -7.5% 54% 8% -8.1%
≤90d 13 +2.3% -7.5% 54% 8% -8.1%
all 25 +1.8% -7.9% 60% 4% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 4% -8.2%
10% -16.7% 0% -16.9%
15% -24.8% 0% -25.0%
20% -32.1% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×7.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×105.08 per $1 lost it wins $105.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses15 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage452d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $89 +$4 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $63 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $32 +$1 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Cameron Ward? Apr 02 $13 $0 -1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $13 $0 +1%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $13 $0 +4%
Ethereum above $1,900 on March 21? Mar 22 $12 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $31 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $53 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $53 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $40 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $43 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $7 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $11 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $52 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $35 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $29 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $8 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $2 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $19 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $23 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records