Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:39:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe385…9afa sports 200 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$311 (-7%) realized −$311 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate42%83W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$20
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$246
other 13% −$70
crypto 1% −$13
politics 0% +$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -42.4% -47.9% 32% 26% -4.2%
≤30d 49 -51.3% -55.9% 27% 22% -10.6%
≤90d 143 -38.9% -44.7% 39% 22% -14.0%
all 200 -35.8% -41.9% 42% 24% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.9% 24% -16.4%
10% -47.5% 15% -24.4%
15% -52.5% 11% -31.7%
20% -57.2% 9% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$311
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses83 / 117
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)200 / 200
History coverage121d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 200 Trades
no open positions (74 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $31 +$5 +18%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $35 +$2 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $8 −$3 -35%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $23 +$8 +36%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $35 +$5 +14%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $18 +$4 +25%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $49 +$16 +33%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 +$3 +54%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$20 +78%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 $0 -9%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 +$1 +7%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 -46%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $0 $0 -3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 +$8 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -87%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 37 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -90%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 Jun 03 $0 $0 +17%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 31 $5 +$1 +16%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 5 May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $38 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $35 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $31 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 46¢ $5 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $8 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 58¢ $3 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $3 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $31 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $40 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 60¢ $6 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 86¢ $5 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 71¢ $18 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 88¢ $35 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 5h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 20¢ $0 5h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 20¢ $1 5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $18 6h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $0 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 80¢ $23 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 13h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 434 history records