Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:34:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E3 0xe388…854b world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+2%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate52%25W / 23L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$32
politics 24% −$4
sports 14% +$4
world 13% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.4% -12.6% 29% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 12 -1.7% -11.1% 42% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 25 -0.9% -10.3% 44% 0% -9.9%
all 48 +11.7% +1.1% 52% 15% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 15% -8.0%
10% -8.6% 10% -16.8%
15% -17.4% 10% -24.9%
20% -25.5% 10% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.01 per $1 lost it wins $3.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses25 / 23
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage526d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -18%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $35 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $26 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 25 $142 −$6 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $96 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $94 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $46 +$1 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $203 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 13 $7 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $234 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $6 $0 -5%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $233 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $171 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $3 $0 +0%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 Mar 16 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romani Apr 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Apr 07 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Apr 07 $23 +$13 +60%
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? Feb 18 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Pistons Feb 18 $6 +$5 +89%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-02-11? Feb 18 $11 +$1 +12%
Will the Eagles beat the Commanders by 7 or more points? Feb 05 $7 +$8 +113%
Mungo vs. MINH Jan 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Jan 24 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 24 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Tottenham beat Liverpool? Jan 09 $1 +$6 +376%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $4 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $41 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $41 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $28 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records