Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E3 0xe389…6c72 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$303 (+41%) realized +$319 · open −$16

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip

Net edge+8%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown3%max

Avg bet$148per market

Trades / day2.1pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$486now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+8.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+19.7%	+8.3%	50%	50%	+109.2%
≤30d	2	+19.7%	+8.3%	50%	50%	+109.2%
≤90d	2	+19.7%	+8.3%	50%	50%	+109.2%
all	2	+19.7%	+8.3%	50%	50%	+109.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.3%	50%	+109.2%
10%	-2.1%	50%	+89.2%
15%	-11.5%	50%	+70.9%
20%	-20.2%	50%	+54.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +131% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +131% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$284 vs −$7 · ×39.47 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×39.47 per $1 lost it wins $39.47

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$486

Realized+$319

Unrealized−$16

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage3d

Avg bet$148

Trades / day2.1

Drawdown3%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	58¢	58¢	$482	$486	+$4 (+1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$20	$0	−$20 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$204	+$284	+139%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$7	−$7	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$488	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$487	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	8¢	$21	5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	41¢	$204	8h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY	57¢	$20	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	41¢	$7	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $485.90 · official $485.90 (match) · 6 history records