Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E3 0xe38a…18af crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%28W / 21L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$550per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,054now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$21
14 days+$19
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$24
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-44.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 10 -29.9% -36.5% 70% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 19 -52.5% -57.0% 47% 0% -9.5%
all 49 -38.6% -44.4% 57% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -49.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -54.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -59.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,089) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$2,054
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses28 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage207d
Avg bet$550
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2,048 $2,050 +$2 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $2,043 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? Jun 23 $2,039 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 21? Jun 21 $2,036 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $2,030 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $2,026 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on May 29? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 11? May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on Apri May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on May 3? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 1? May 01 $0 $0 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 13? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 4? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 20? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on March 14? Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $1,107 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 9? Mar 10 $1,104 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $1,102 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 7? Mar 08 $1,099 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 6? Mar 07 $1,097 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on March 5? Mar 06 $1,095 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 4? Mar 05 $1,091 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 3? Mar 04 $1,089 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 2? Mar 03 $1,084 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $1,080 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 28? Mar 01 $1,077 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $1,073 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $1,071 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 25? Feb 26 $1,069 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $1,064 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$480 on the final day of trading of th Feb 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.10 on February 9? Feb 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google dip to $215 in January? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,300 on February 1? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 24? Jan 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on December 1 Dec 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,048 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,043 26h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $2,039 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $2,036 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,030 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,026 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 23d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on May 29? BUY No 0¢ $2 27d
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 34d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 36d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 45d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 49d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on May 3? BUY No 0¢ $2 53d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 1? BUY No 0¢ $0 54d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 1? BUY No 0¢ $0 54d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 1? BUY No 0¢ $0 54d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 64d
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on Apri BUY No 100¢ $3 72d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 73d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 79d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 4? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 97d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on March 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 10? BUY No 100¢ $1,107 107d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,104 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,102 109d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,099 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,054.33 · official $2,054.33 (match) · 92 history records