Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:32:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe38a…3dd4 crypto 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$247 (-3%) realized −$249 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate85%77W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$7
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$183
other 17% −$16
politics 16% −$15
world 6% +$7
weather 5% +$2
finance 4% +$4
tech 2% −$7
sports 1% −$45
economics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -10.5% -19.0% 50% 0% -14.9%
≤30d 8 -4.4% -13.5% 75% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 16 +0.2% -9.3% 81% 6% -8.3%
all 91 -2.5% -11.8% 85% 4% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 4% -12.8%
10% -20.2% 3% -21.1%
15% -28.0% 3% -28.8%
20% -35.0% 3% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$40 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$249
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses77 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage594d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $97 $99 +$2 (+2%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? No 95¢ 94¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cu Jun 28 $48 $0 -0%
Will Australia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Jun 28 $21 −$10 -45%
Will Saudi Arabia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cu Jun 27 $16 $0 +2%
Will Iran be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $146 +$1 +1%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? Jun 04 $31 +$1 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $112 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 29 $97 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on May 17? May 21 $209 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $69 −$22 -32%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 05 $55 +$2 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 05 $135 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $40 +$2 +5%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 16 $60 +$33 +54%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? Apr 06 $66 +$1 +2%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in March 2026? Apr 06 $84 +$4 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 05 $149 +$2 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 16? Feb 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on February 16? Feb 17 $141 +$1 +1%
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? Feb 15 $49 +$4 +7%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 04 $51 −$45 -89%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 04 $137 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 08 $60 $0 +1%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher world Jan 08 $75 +$1 +2%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Dec 09 $134 +$1 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in November? Dec 09 $56 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Nov 28 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026? Nov 25 $56 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Nov 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Trump visit China by October 31? Nov 05 $127 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 26 $10 +$6 +57%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 17? Oct 19 $325 −$325 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 03 $351 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Sep 25 $200 +$1 +0%
Linea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Sep 17 $60 +$2 +3%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 05 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Tether acquire Circle before September? Sep 05 $50 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Sep 05 $253 +$2 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 11 $40 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping before August? Aug 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 05 $40 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 05 $145 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Jun 29 $50 +$1 +2%
Will FIFA launch a cryptocurrency before June? Jun 05 $30 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 05 $50 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 05 $60 $0 +0%
Will Gold hit $3,600 before June? Jun 05 $70 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 05 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Will Ecuador be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cu SELL No 96¢ $48 1h
Will Australia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL No 40¢ $12 1h
Will Iran be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $7 2d
Will Iran be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Ecuador be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cu BUY No 96¢ $48 2d
Will Australia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $21 2d
Will Saudi Arabia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cu BUY No 98¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 10d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $141 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $97 27d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $112 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $97 31d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $209 42d
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? BUY No 96¢ $31 54d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 39¢ $47 54d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $135 73d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 65¢ $60 76d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 82d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY No 95¢ $40 82d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? BUY No 98¢ $66 97d
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in March 2026? BUY No 96¢ $84 115d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 99¢ $149 131d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on February 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $91 133d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on February 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 133d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 133d
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? SELL No 88¢ $53 133d
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $49 144d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $6 144d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $137 171d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.38 · official $146.38 (match) · 569 history records