Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:03:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E3 0xe38c…ef5b crypto 401 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,491 (-14%) realized −$8,491 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%222W / 179L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day68.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,859
7 days+$2,152
14 days+$3,503
30 days−$1,025
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7,671
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -5.7% -14.6% 63% 53% +8.7%
≤30d 234 -11.7% -20.1% 56% 48% -12.2%
≤90d 401 -9.3% -18.0% 55% 49% -21.1%
all 401 -9.3% -18.0% 55% 49% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 49% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 41% -28.7%
15% -33.0% 30% -35.6%
20% -39.5% 23% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$140 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,491
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses222 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)401 / 401
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$150
Trades / day68.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 401 Trades
no open positions (126 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $278 +$173 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $88 −$84 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $298 +$723 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $192 +$168 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $74 −$71 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $294 +$204 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $399 +$123 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $312 +$67 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $169 −$166 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$11 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1,057 +$341 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $73 +$65 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $452 +$297 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $107 +$72 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$27 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $75 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $212 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $522 +$97 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$11 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $391 +$60 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $49 −$41 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$9 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $89 +$59 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$32 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $585 +$234 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $127 +$24 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $559 +$147 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $165 −$157 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $313 +$55 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$12 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $38 +$11 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $181 +$78 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $13 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records