Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe38e…50c8 other 175 markets active 2h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$941 (-1%) realized −$2,332 · open +$1,391
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%69W / 78L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$621per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$13,173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$169
7 days−$1,820
14 days−$905
30 days+$1,032
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$6,816
tech 23% +$5,248
crypto 17% −$1,847
other 12% +$480
finance 4% +$33
sports 3% +$1,214
politics 0% −$46
economics 0% −$19
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -10.1% -18.7% 54% 38% -19.6%
≤30d 49 -1.4% -10.8% 57% 47% -8.2%
≤90d 115 -11.6% -20.1% 41% 31% -12.7%
all 147 +2.4% -7.3% 47% 37% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 37% -12.6%
10% -16.2% 28% -21.0%
15% -24.3% 24% -28.6%
20% -31.7% 15% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$189 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$13,173
Realized−$2,332
Unrealized+$1,391
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses69 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions24
Markets (closed)147 / 175
History coverage206d
Avg bet$621
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 69¢ 99¢ $3,977 $5,713 +$1,736 (+44%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $5,292 $5,226 −$66 (-1%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $523 $528 +$6 (+1%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $450 $441 −$9 (-2%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $378 $391 +$13 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $275 $278 +$3 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $265 $161 −$104 (-39%)
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes 25¢ 14¢ $209 $116 −$93 (-45%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $126 $100 −$27 (-21%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $77 $62 −$15 (-19%)
Stripe IPO before 2027? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $39 $25 −$14 (-35%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $32 $25 −$7 (-21%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $21 −$5 (-19%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? No 40¢ 68¢ $12 $20 +$8 (+71%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 74¢ 58¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-21%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $25 $12 −$13 (-51%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 81¢ $8 $12 +$5 (+62%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 51¢ 27¢ $20 $11 −$10 (-47%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 19¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-62%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 50¢ 57¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+15%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 50¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $61 +$3 +5%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? Jun 28 $85 +$28 +33%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $185 +$101 +55%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $303 +$151 +50%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $611 −$114 -19%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $370 +$80 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $68 +$60 +89%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 25 $108 −$34 -31%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $27 −$26 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $519 −$514 -99%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Jun 25 $375 −$347 -92%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,751 +$246 +9%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $836 +$1,262 +151%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 24 $51 −$28 -55%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 24 $2,250 +$64 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 24 $1,571 −$912 -58%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -96%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $550 +$150 +27%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 23 $345 −$185 -54%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $1,094 +$120 +11%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $840 +$10 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $253 +$156 +62%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $500 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $2,994 −$2,085 -70%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $7,059 +$1,823 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 18 $761 −$518 -68%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,422 +$686 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $452 −$308 -68%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $165 +$35 +22%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$54 +104%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $6,320 −$598 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5,028 +$801 +16%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +200%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,836 −$1,066 -58%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 13 $51 +$91 +178%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 10 $41 −$40 -96%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $58 +$9 +15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $379 −$379 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $940 +$59 +6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $98 +$35 +36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $770 +$356 +46%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $475 +$505 +106%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $361 +$139 +39%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $13,447 −$677 -5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $600 −$594 -99%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $10,225 +$2,234 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1,751 +$266 +15%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $62 −$61 -99%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $23 +$7 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $64 1h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? SELL No 90¢ $113 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $98 21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $200 21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $200 21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $18 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $46 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $5 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $2 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $8 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $1 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $3 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $1 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $270 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $9 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $5 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $1 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $1 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $1 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $180 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $198 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $25 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $2 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $112 23h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $180 23h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $1 23h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $36 23h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $14 23h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $90 23h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 90¢ $18 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,172.75 · official $13,156.87 (match) · 1345 history records