Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

E3 0xe38f…0ff5 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$491 (-5%) realized −$491 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip

Net edge-34%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate40%8W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$543per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit45%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$16

7 days+$16

14 days+$16

30 days+$16

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)-31.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+10.3%	-0.2%	100%	0%	-0.2%
≤30d	1	+10.3%	-0.2%	100%	0%	-0.2%
≤90d	1	+10.3%	-0.2%	100%	0%	-0.2%
all	20	-23.8%	-31.1%	40%	30%	-13.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.1%	30%	-13.6%
10%	-37.7%	25%	-21.8%
15%	-43.7%	25%	-29.4%
20%	-49.2%	15%	-36.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% too few recent

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -16% → late -32% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$289 vs −$233 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.83 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$491

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses8 / 12

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage592d

Avg bet$543

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$158	+$16	+10%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?	Mar 08	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?	Mar 08	$1,000	−$1,000	-100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?	Mar 08	$200	+$82	+41%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?	Mar 08	$50	+$87	+173%
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Feb 09	$400	−$314	-78%
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	Jan 01	$250	−$250	-100%
Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	Dec 31	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2024 F1 season?	Jan 28	$100	−$100	-100%
Will McLaren win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship?	Jan 28	$441	+$172	+39%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?	Nov 16	$500	+$400	+80%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner?	Nov 16	$50	−$31	-62%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?	Nov 07	$696	+$113	+16%
Will Trump win 6 swing states?	Nov 06	$200	−$99	-50%
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?	Nov 06	$500	−$396	-79%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 06	$2,527	+$1,414	+56%
Who will win white women?	Nov 06	$500	−$407	-81%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 05	$2,500	+$27	+1%
Will Ferrari win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship?	Nov 01	$500	−$58	-12%
Kamala wins 270-268 - MI, PA, WI	Oct 31	$200	−$60	-30%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	99¢	$116	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	82¢	$105	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	26¢	$58	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	21¢	$53	1h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?	SELL Yes	19¢	$137	99d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	7¢	$50	99d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	5¢	$25	99d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	71¢	$200	99d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	4¢	$25	99d
Seahawks vs. Patriots	SELL Patriots	6¢	$86	126d
Seahawks vs. Patriots	BUY Patriots	19¢	$100	126d
Seahawks vs. Patriots	BUY Patriots	33¢	$300	126d
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	BUY Yes	34¢	$220	165d
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	BUY Yes	25¢	$30	165d
Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	BUY Yes	12¢	$30	165d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	77¢	$1,000	456d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?	SELL Yes	99¢	$865	576d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?	SELL Yes	99¢	$30	576d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?	SELL Yes	99¢	$5	576d
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner?	SELL Yes	3¢	$19	576d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?	BUY Yes	55¢	$500	576d
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner?	BUY Yes	8¢	$50	576d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?	SELL Yes	100¢	$809	584d
Will Trump win 6 swing states?	SELL Yes	0¢	$1	585d
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?	SELL Yes	11¢	$104	585d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	97¢	$3,941	586d
Who will win white women?	SELL Harris	6¢	$93	586d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	62¢	$2,527	586d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	38¢	$2,527	586d
Will McLaren win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship?	BUY Yes	72¢	$441	590d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records