Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:27:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

E3 0xe391…263e crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$100 (-9%) realized −$14 · open −$86

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip

Net edge-44%after slip

Net WR18%break-even

Win rate27%3W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$90per market

Trades / day33.0pace

Kalshi-fit77%portable

Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +18%

net ROI/market (all)-33.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-26.8%	-33.8%	27%	18%	-22.7%
≤30d	11	-26.8%	-33.8%	27%	18%	-22.7%
≤90d	11	-26.8%	-33.8%	27%	18%	-22.7%
all	11	-26.8%	-33.8%	27%	18%	-22.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover33.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-33.8%	18%	-22.7%
10% ← realistic here	-40.1%	18%	-30.1%
15%	-45.9%	18%	-36.9%
20%	-51.2%	18%	-43.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -27% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$87 vs −$49 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.66 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$176

Realized−$14

Unrealized−$86

Win rate (resolved)27%

Wins / losses3 / 8

Open positions2

Markets (closed)11 / 13

History coverage1d

Avg bet$90

Trades / day33.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	76¢	54¢	$244	$172	−$72 (-30%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 24?	Yes	3¢	1¢	$18	$5	−$14 (-74%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$323	+$168	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Jun 24	$74	−$24	-32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Jun 24	$51	−$25	-50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 24	$29	−$29	-100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$98	−$95	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Jun 24	$53	+$1	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Jun 24	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Jun 24	$32	−$32	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 24	$148	−$148	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 24	$53	−$27	-51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Jun 24	$32	+$91	+285%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	76¢	$247	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$247	2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	88¢	$220	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$16	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$16	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	SELL Down	28¢	$35	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$16	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$16	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	SELL Up	65¢	$15	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$10	2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	96¢	$244	2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	30¢	$98	6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	39¢	$102	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$12	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$14	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	SELL Up	39¢	$26	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$25	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$29	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$53	7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 24?	BUY Yes	3¢	$20	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$27	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	SELL Down	42¢	$26	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$26	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$70	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$78	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$11	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$21	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	SELL Down	38¢	$123	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$11	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	BUY Down	15¢	$11	8h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.25 · official $192.29 · 41 history records