trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | May 20 | $86 | −$6 | -7% |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by May 31, 2026? | May 19 | $100 | −$98 | -98% |
| Will Brenton Doyle lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular s | May 19 | $10 | +$4 | +42% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13? | May 13 | $69 | −$65 | -94% |
| Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30? | Apr 24 | $7 | −$2 | -26% |
| Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? | Apr 23 | $100 | −$4 | -4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 22 | $59 | −$11 | -18% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 23? | Apr 22 | $3 | −$1 | -19% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on April 21? | Apr 22 | $34 | +$5 | +15% |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on April 22? | Apr 20 | $6 | −$3 | -43% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | -20.8% | -28.3% | 33% | 33% | -55.3% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -25.8% | -32.9% | 20% | 20% | -43.9% |
| all | 10 | -25.8% | -32.9% | 20% | 20% | -43.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -32.9% | 20% | -43.9% |
| 10% | -39.3% | 10% | -49.2% |
| 15% | -45.2% | 10% | -54.1% |
| 20% | -50.5% | 0% | -58.6% |