Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E3
0xe393…32c8
weather · 7 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$2 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 5 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Yes 43¢ 51¢ $35 $42 +$7 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-39%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Yes 13¢ 9¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 92% +$3
finance 4% $0
other 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +27.4% +15.2% 50% 50% +15.5%
≤30d 2 +27.4% +15.2% 50% 50% +15.5%
≤90d 2 +27.4% +15.2% 50% 50% +15.5%
all 2 +27.4% +15.2% 50% 50% +15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.2% 50% +15.5%
10% +4.2% 50% +4.4%
15% -5.9% 50% -5.7%
20% -15.1% 50% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.97 · official $50.07 (match) · 12 history records