Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:24:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe395…0671 crypto 367 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,669 (-18%) realized −$1,651 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate49%176W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$171
7 days−$665
14 days−$624
30 days−$651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 35% −$907
sports 29% −$186
crypto 27% −$200
world 8% −$483
other 1% −$16
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -20.5% -28.0% 48% 43% -36.9%
≤30d 85 -13.9% -22.1% 51% 42% -30.7%
≤90d 183 -10.1% -18.6% 54% 42% -32.0%
all 357 -10.8% -19.3% 49% 36% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 36% -28.1%
10% -27.0% 23% -35.0%
15% -34.1% 15% -41.3%
20% -40.6% 10% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$1,651
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses176 / 181
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions7
Markets (closed)357 / 367
History coverage107d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs TDK 83¢ 100¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+21%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 91¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 26¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner FURIA 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -48%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $3 +$4 +128%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $736 −$342 -46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 +$3 +114%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 +$1 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 +$1 +70%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $318 +$32 +10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $256 +$48 +19%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $9 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $287 +$60 +21%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $41 −$7 -17%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $76 +$35 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$12 -88%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $125 +$11 +8%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $9 +$2 +24%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $5 −$2 -45%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $39 +$5 +13%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$1 +18%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +21%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1 +$1 +73%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 +$1 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +93%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $467 −$446 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $110 −$44 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$6 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $124 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 6¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 88¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 92¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL TDK 82¢ $70 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL TDK 79¢ $67 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 83¢ $151 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 17¢ $19 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 30¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 29¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 29¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 48¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 26¢ $87 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 17¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner BUY Phantom 39¢ $133 6h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner BUY Phantom 65¢ $126 6h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner BUY Phantom 75¢ $126 6h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner SELL Phantom 77¢ $71 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.09 · official $15.27 (match) · 2053 history records