Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe398…ee2e sports 909 markets active 1h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$953 (+2%) realized +$956 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate69%622W / 283L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$351
14 days+$351
30 days+$351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$466
other 19% +$380
crypto 1% +$26
world 0% +$14
culture 0% +$7
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +22.9% +11.2% 93% 87% +11.0%
≤30d 15 +22.9% +11.2% 93% 87% +11.0%
≤90d 183 -1.1% -10.5% 75% 69% -11.5%
all 905 -2.2% -11.5% 69% 55% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 55% -7.7%
10% -20.0% 36% -16.6%
15% -27.7% 24% -24.6%
20% -34.8% 16% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$30 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized+$956
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses622 / 283
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions3
Markets (closed)905 / 909
History coverage574d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 905 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? No 84¢ 82¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $106 +$14 +14%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $101 +$29 +28%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $102 +$26 +26%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 +$14 +14%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $113 +$7 +6%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $105 +$15 +14%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $105 −$104 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $103 +$37 +36%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $104 +$36 +34%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $101 +$29 +28%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $103 +$92 +90%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $103 +$22 +21%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $101 +$40 +40%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $101 +$29 +29%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $101 +$65 +65%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Arthur Gea May 19 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $26 +$3 +12%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Landaluce (+1.5) May 14 $61 +$50 +82%
Real Madrid CF leading at halftime? May 14 $35 +$24 +67%
Parma: Solana Sierra vs Dayana Yastremska May 14 $61 +$62 +101%
Tunis: Tristan Boyer vs Laurent Lokoli May 14 $81 +$56 +69%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff May 14 $20 +$9 +44%
Set 1 Winner: Sierra vs Yastremska May 14 $25 +$21 +83%
Set 1 Winner: Boyer vs Lokoli May 14 $30 +$19 +63%
Set 1 Winner: Cirstea vs Gauff May 14 $15 +$9 +57%
Parma: Barbora Krejcikova vs Viktorija Golubic May 14 $20 +$7 +36%
Valencia: Nicolas Alvarez Varona vs Adolfo Vallejo May 14 $20 +$4 +20%
Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Emilio Nava May 14 $40 +$28 +68%
Valencia: Leandro Riedi vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Silva vs. Moeller: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Parma: Dominika Salkova vs Camila Osorio May 14 $20 +$6 +31%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Zagreb: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Elmer Moeller May 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Tunis: Federico Cina vs Inaki Montes May 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 May 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Dundee FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $101 +$26 +26%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 May 11 $30 +$8 +26%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 May 11 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $101 +$28 +27%
Silkeborg IF vs. FC København: O/U 2.5 May 10 $101 +$26 +26%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 10 $101 −$100 -99%
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5 May 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $101 +$50 +50%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5 May 08 $100 +$13 +13%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 06 $99 +$11 +11%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $100 +$15 +14%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 04 $101 +$21 +21%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 May 04 $118 +$32 +27%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5 May 02 $101 +$23 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 84¢ $100 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY 51¢ $10 8h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $106 9h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 9h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 88¢ $101 40h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $102 41h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 80¢ $105 41h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $113 41h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $105 41h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $104 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $103 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $103 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $103 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 4d
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 57¢ $29 39d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 89¢ $26 39d
Set 1 Winner: Sierra vs Yastremska BUY Yastremska 54¢ $25 44d
Parma: Solana Sierra vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 49¢ $61 44d
Silva vs. Moeller: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 73¢ $10 44d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina BUY Iga Swiatek 78¢ $20 44d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 69¢ $20 44d
Parma: Barbora Krejcikova vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Barbora Krejcikova 73¢ $20 44d
Parma: Dominika Salkova vs Camila Osorio BUY Camila Osorio 76¢ $20 44d
Valencia: Nicolas Alvarez Varona vs Adolfo Vallejo BUY Adolfo Vallejo 83¢ $20 44d
Valencia: Leandro Riedi vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 63¢ $20 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.62 · official $296.63 (match) · 2825 history records