Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:51:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E3 0xe399…c22a crypto 137 markets active 8h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-6%) realized −$13 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%71W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$18
other 18% −$1
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 50% -24.5%
≤30d 27 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 52% -11.7%
≤90d 126 -7.8% -16.6% 56% 52% -19.3%
all 126 -7.8% -16.6% 56% 52% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 52% -19.3%
10% -24.6% 41% -27.1%
15% -31.9% 33% -34.1%
20% -38.6% 23% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses71 / 55
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)126 / 137
History coverage91d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+41%)
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 31 $2 +$2 +91%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $1 $0 +8%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 13 $6 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 01 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 27 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 27 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 26 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +29%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 19 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 19 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 19 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 19 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 19 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 18 $2 +$1 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 25h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.08 · official $21.08 (match) · 424 history records